Diggings
A Blog By Toby Dayton
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Huge Job Listing Gains On LinkUp In January Point To Significant Job Growth In February
It’s hard to imagine that the muddled jobs picture could possibly get any murkier, but it is. Between ADP’s ‘Purge Effect,’ archaic seasonality adjustments (i.e., UPS and FedEx are still not fully accounted for in seasonal holiday hiring models), constant backwards revisions from the Department of Labor (a game ADP is now even playing), and a baffling initial December jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it is becoming increasingly difficult to get an accurate... |
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Expect A Negative December Jobs Report On Friday, But January Jobs Report Should Be Better
Cheering for a positive jobs report from the Department of Labor these days is quite similar to cheering for the Minnesota Vikings of late; I’m always hopeful but there just isn’t much in the statistics to get too encouraged about. And unfortunately, the November jobs data published by LinkUp a month ago doesn’t bode well for this Friday’s BLS report for December. On a more positive note, however, our jobs data for December presents at least a glimmer of hope that the nation’s... |
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Learning to Use An Alethiometer
There were a number of interesting aspects of today’s jobs report from the Department of Labor related to each of the following: 1) LinkUp’s forecasting model 2) Flaws in the government’s numbers 3) The state of the jobs picture in the U.S. In reverse order, I’ll start with today’s report. The Employment Situation Report issued today reported that 120,000 nonfarm jobs were created in the U.S. in November, a number that includes a gain of 140,000 private sector jobs... |
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Tomorrow’s Jobs Report Will Disappoint Again According To LinkUp Job Search Engine
Like clockwork every month, the pundits on Bloomberg and CNBC state definitively that THIS month’s jobs report is certainly the most widely anticipated report in recent memory. Unfortunately, I cannot argue their claim. With each passing month that the U.S. economy spends stuck in the quagmire of the 2nd Great Contraction, with its horrifically high unemployment, hope grows that it’s this next jobs report that might finally indicate that a jobs recovery is around the corner. Expectations... |
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LinkUp Jobs Data Indicates That The October Jobs Report Will Be Far Worse Than Expected
I’m not typically one who looks for or pays attention to signs from the cosmos, but it was a truly bizarre coincidence that as I was assembling the output from our jobs forecasting model and started to get a sense of what the picture looked like, Cat Stevens’ Trouble began playing on KEXP’s stream. (Seriously – 10:34AM CST, 11/2/11). Troubling, indeed, Friday’s jobs report from the Department of Labor will be “too shocking to see” for the markets. Based... |